Key Takeaway

On PRC GAAP,Yanzhou Coal reported 3Q15 EPS of Rmb0.13 vs. Rmb0.10 in the entire first half(IFRS -Rmb0.01) despite substantially lower coal prices. Aggressive costcutting was again the supposed explanation. We reject Yanzhou's reportedearnings as, we believe, it was accomplished by drawing down equity reserves.Even more dubious, the company appears to have restated its YE14 balance sheetto create more reserves to draw down.

会议重点摘要

根据中国会计准则，兖州煤业在2015年第三季度报告中披露其每股盈利为0.13元人民币，对比公司整个上半年的每股盈利才0.01元人民币（国际会计准则下），尽管期内煤价仍在持续下跌。对于大超预期的业绩，公司给出的解释仍然是由于激进的成本削减所带来。我们并不接受此次兖州煤业公布的业绩，因为我们相信公司报告中盈利的增长都是靠提取专项储备所导致。更加令人质疑的是，公司竟然重新调整其2014年的资产负债表来创造更多地专项储备金以便日后进一步提取。

I was lied to, I was cheated, I played all kinds offools/ It didn't take me long to learn the rules/Fool me once, shame on you/ Fool me twice, shame onme — B. B. King

我被骗了，我被背叛了，我扮演了所有的傻瓜/我并没有花太多时间来学会这套规则/骗我一次，算你狠/骗我两次，是我蠢 — Riley B. King （美国歌手、作曲家）

Positive netincome, really?

Yanzhou Coalreported clean adjusted 9M15 net income ofRmb934m. Duringthis time, shareholders' equity fell 14%. Excluding other comprehensive income,which is skewed by foreign currency translation, shareholders' equity fell 1.1%when it should have risen 3.2%. This should only happen if large dividends werepaid. We don't see any dividends.

净收益为正是真的吗？

$兖州煤业(sh600188)$ $兖州煤业股份(hk01171)$ 报告称经调整后今年9月份的净收益为9.34亿人民币。同时，股东权益下降了14%。如果不考虑其他综合收入，因为受外汇影响较大，公司股东权益也下跌了1.1%，但实际上这个数据应该是上涨3.2%。这种情况只有在支付大量分红的情况下才会发生，但我们并没有看见任何分红。

Drawing downprovisions...and now capital reserves!

Yanzhou Coal hadbeen "reducing costs" by drawing down reserves for maintenance andsafety (see here). In 1H15, this reserve fund was nearly drained, having fallenby 82% from 2012 levels. It appears that the company has since started drainingits capital reserves. Not only that, Yanzhou has apparently restated its YE14balance sheet to give it more capital reserves to draw down. We calculate thatYanzhou Coal "created" Rmb1B of PRC GAAP earnings in 9M15 by manipulatingits equity reserves.

先是提取专项储备金，现在又来动资本公积金！

兖州煤业用提取用于日常维护和安全的储备金来对冲成本。2015年上半年，这些储备金自2012年的水平下滑了82%，几近枯竭。于是公司就进一步开始打资本公积金的歪主意。不仅如此，兖州甚至重新调整其2014年的资产负债表来创造更多地专项储备金以便日后进一步提取。经我们计算，兖州煤业通过在专项储备金上做手脚而给公司今年9月份“创造”了近10亿人民币的收益。

Negativeoperating cash flow,  increasing debt,increasing leverage.

In 9M15, YanzhouCoal's operating cash flow was -Rmb574m, its total debt increased by ~Rmb3B andits net debt to equity increased ~14%. These are not the metrics of aprofitable company, in our view.

负的运营现金流，不断增加的债务 ，不断提高的杠杆比例。

2015年9月，兖州煤业的运营现金流为-5.74亿人民币，公司的总债务增加了30亿人民币，还有公司净负债率也提高了14%。在我们看来，这些都不是一个盈利的公司会展现出来的。

Massivelosses under IFRS GAAP.

We estimate thatYanzhou Coal's 9M15 IFRS EPS would be -Rmb0.35 in 9M15 without balance sheetmanipulations. With reserve drawdowns, we estimate that IFRS EPS would be-Rmb0.14.

根据国际会计准则，公司存在巨大亏损

根据国际会计准则，假如不考虑公司对资产负债表做的手脚，我们预测的兖州煤业今年9月份的每股盈利应为-0.35元人民币。如果算上公司提出的准备金，我们估算这个数应该是-0.14元人民币。