前记：和许多人误解的不同。

Rothschild AG在全球的资产管理规模AUM （Asset Under Managment)仍然有$53Billion 之巨。即 530亿美元

作为全球最负盛名的老牌银行家族，此投行研报亦有可圈可点之处。从权益市场到可转债企业债，亚洲市场到新兴日本市场的总结，都有详尽的概括。

Temporary weakness - 暂时的脆弱

MARKET ANALYSIS 市场分析  - 2/8/2019

After a strong January rally, risk assets turned more volatile and edged lower over the week after Washington said there was now no reason for Donald Trump to meet Xi Jinping before the March Ist deadline when new tariffs kick in.

The downbeat mood was reinforced after the European Commission downgraded its growth forecasts. The eurozone is now seen expanding by 1.3% this year, down from November’s forecast of 1.9% and by 1.5% in 2020 (vs. 1.6%). US-Europe tensions over trade talks also increased a little after Washington said that Europe had promised to include agriculture. Europe issued a denial.

Meanwhile, strong job creation data confirmed that the US was holding up well whereas Europe continued to slow although less than expected (January’s composite PMI data beat estimates and have practically stopped falling). China, too, continued weaker with January's Caixin PMI falling 1.3 points to 50.9.

We view the short term situation as a little more fragile. We cut equity market exposure in January to neutral but remain invested as central banks are once again providing protection and we expect China to stop slowing, a development that would significantly improve sentiment on global economic trends. 

经过强劲的1月份反弹后，风险资产变得更加波动，并且在华盛顿表示现在没有理由让唐纳德特朗普在新的关税启动前的3月I截止日期之前与习近平会面之后，这个数字变得更加波动。

在欧盟委员会降低其增长预测后，悲观情绪得到加强。欧元区现在看来今年增长1.3％，低于11月预测的1.9％和2020年的1.5％（对比1.6％）。在华盛顿表示欧洲承诺将农业包括在内之后，美欧对贸易谈判的紧张局势也有所增加。欧洲发表否认。

与此同时，强劲的创造就业数据证实，美国保持良好势头，而欧洲继续放缓，尽管低于预期（1月份的综合PMI数据超过预期并且几乎停止下跌）。中国也继续走弱，1月份的财新采购经理人指数下降1.3点至50.9。

我们认为短期情况更为脆弱。我们将1月份的股票市场风险降至中性，但随着中央银行再次提供保护而继续投资，我们预计ZG 经济将停止放缓，这一发展将显着改善全球经济趋势的情绪。

European equities

欧洲权益市场

The equity market rally finally hit the buffers when news broke that Donald Trump and Xi Jinping might not after all meet before the deadline for new import tariffs. Sentiment was also hit when growth in the eurozone was cut from 1.9% to 1.3% and Germany’s industrial production fell in December. To cap it all, several companies reported disappointing results.

Cyclicals had led the rally so naturally suffered sharp declines. Autos in particular suffered after poor new registration figures in Europe in January. Results at Fiat-Chrysler and Daimler were hit by mounting electric motor costs. Leoni (cables) plunged after the company passed on its dividend for 2018 and said 2020 targets would be missed. Publicis  plummeted after like-for-like growth fell 0.3% in the fourth quarter despite a better-than-expected improvement in its operating margins; its fall dragged down the entire media sector. BNP and Société Générale  dropped after revising their ROTE targets lower. Only ING  stood out for beating fourth quarter estimates.

In contrast, defensives reported rather encouraging figures. Pernod Ricard revised up its 2021 outlook slightly and now expects operating leverage to increase by 50-60bp by then. Carlsberg’s strong Asian sales and favourable weather helped results beat estimates and there were signs that investments were starting to generate growth. L’Oréal beat fourth-quarter estimates while margins were announced in line. The stock also rode higher after Estée Lauder posted excellent earnings.

The luxury sector was boosted after Hermès reported robust figures. Dassault Systèmes  jumped after licences rose 11% and investment fell. Total gained on higher oil prices and production.

Wirecard remained centre stage due to its ongoing dispute with the Financial Times and ahead of the external audit’s results. 

当有消息称TRUMP和大大可能不会在新的进口关税截止日期之前见面后，股市的涨势最终触及缓冲。当欧元区经济增长率从1.9％降至1.3％以及德国工业生产在12月份下降时，情绪也受到打击。最重要的是，几家公司报告了令人失望的结果。

周期性股市领涨，因此自然遭遇急剧下跌。在1月份欧洲新注册人数不佳之后，汽车尤其受到了影响。菲亚特 - 克莱斯勒和戴姆勒的业绩因电动机成本上升而受到打击。 Leoni（电缆）在该公司于2018年分红之后暴跌，并称2020年的目标将被遗漏。尽管经营利润率改善好于预期，但在第四季度类似增长下降0.3％之后，阳狮普遍下跌;它的下滑拖累了整个媒体行业。 BNP和SociétéGénérale在修改其ROTE目标后下跌。只有ING因击败第四季度的估计而脱颖而出。

相比之下，防御者报告了相当令人鼓舞的数字。保乐力加略微上调其2021年的前景，现在预计经营杠杆将增加50-60个基点。嘉士伯强劲的亚洲销售和有利的天气帮助结果超出预期，并且有迹象显示投资开始产生增长。欧莱雅（L'Oréal）击败了第四季度的预期，同时公布了利润率。在雅诗兰黛公布出色的收益后，该股也走高。

在Hermès公布强劲数据后，奢侈品行业受到提振。许可证上涨11％，投资下降，DassaultSystèmes大幅上涨。油价上涨和产量上涨。

由于与金融时报的持续纠纷以及外部审计结果之前，Wirecard仍然处于中心位置。

US equities

美股权益

Donald Trump used his State of the Union speech to call for unity but refused to abandon his Mexican wall project. Other salient points in his address included comments on the trade talks with China, an appeal to cut prescription drug prices, tough talk on military spending and calls for Congress to temper its investigative zeal.

This week’s data included manufacturing ISM which came in at 56.7, or slightly below the 57 estimated, and industrial orders which fell 0.6% instead of the 0.3% increase pencilled in by analysts.

Close to half of S&P500 companies, representing 70% of its total market capitalisation, have now reported results. In line with the historic mean, almost 50% have beaten earnings expectations and 30% have reported sales above consensus estimates. Companies which have beaten have outperformed the index by 240bp on average or more than the 100bp historic mean. Over the week, Estée Lauder and Ralph Lauren  outperformed after reporting better-than-expected sales and upbeat prospects for 2019.

Regional banks also rose after SunTrust and BB&T said they were to merge in an all-equity deal to create the 6th largest bank in the US. The S&P500 ended the period practically unchanged. Industrials, property and tech advanced while healthcare, energy and materials lost ground. 

TRUMP利用他的国情咨文演讲要求团结，但拒绝放弃他的墨西哥墙项目。他在演讲中提出的其他重点还包括对与中国进行贸易谈判的评论，对减少处方药价格的呼吁，对军事开支的强硬谈话以及要求国会缓和其调查热情的呼吁。

本周的数据包括制造ISM，其报价为56.7，或略低于预期的57，工业订单下跌0.6％，而不是分析师预测的0.3％增幅。

近一半的标准普尔500指数公司（占其总市值的70％）现已公布业绩。与历史均值一致，近50％的人已经超过盈利预期，30％的人士表示销售额高于市场预期。遭遇殴打的公司平均表现优于指数240个基点或超过100个基点的历史均值。本周，雅诗兰黛和拉尔夫劳伦在报告2019年好于预期的销售和乐观前景后跑赢大市。

SunTrust和BB＆T表示他们将在全股权交易中合并以创建美国第六大银行，区域银行也有所上涨。标准普尔500指数在此期间几乎没有变化。工业，房地产和科技技术进步，医疗保健，能源和材料价格下跌。

Japanese equities

日本权益市场

At the peak of third quarter (to end December) earnings, Japanese equities were relatively firm despite worse-than-expected profits and downward revisions for the full financial year to March 2019. The TOPIX edged up 0.28% for the week. Programme trading was much in evidence but price moves were limited as the bad news had already been factored in.  

Softbank Group surged 17.89% due to better-than-expected earnings, news of a share buyback and possible future deleveraging. Economic sensitive stocks such Keyence (+8.71%), SMC (+6.33%) and Murata Manufacturing (+3.98) were among outperformers. In addition, China-related names such as Shiseido (+8.22%), Kao  (+4.40%), Unicharm (+4.00%) also rebounded.　　　

On the other hand, Sony tumbled 14.29%, despite delivering record earnings, on concerns that profits from its key game business had peaked. Pharma stocks Daiichi Sankyo (-9.56%), Mitsubishi Chemical (-8.03%) and auto manufacturer Honda Motor  (-7.49%) were weak. 

In a reflection of the sharp global slowdown in the October to December quarter, aggregate earnings for the year to March are now seem moving into marginally negative territory.     

In the future, investment performance gaps are expected to expand, depending on whether companies have solid growth prospects or not. 

在第三季度（至12月底）收益的最高点，日本股市相对坚挺，尽管利润差于预期，并且整个财政年度的下调至2019年3月.TOPIX本周小幅上涨0.28％。程序交易很明显，但价格变动有限，因为坏消息已被考虑在内。

软银集团股价飙升17.89％，原因是盈利好于预期，股票回购的消息以及未来可能的去杠杆化。 Keyence（+ 8.71％），SMC（+ 6.33％）和Murata Manufacturing（+3.98）等经济敏感股表现优异。此外，资生堂（+ 8.22％），花王（+ 4.40％），Unicharm（+ 4.00％）等中国相关名称也出现反弹。

另一方面，由于担心其主要游戏业务的利润达到顶峰，索尼的业绩创下历史新高，下跌14.29％。制药股第一三共（-9.56％），三菱化学（-8.03％）和汽车制造商本田汽车（-7.49％）疲弱。

鉴于10月至12月季度全球经济急剧放缓，截至3月份的年度总收益似乎正在进入略微负面的区域。

未来，预计投资业绩差距将扩大，这取决于公司是否有稳健的增长前景。

Emerging markets

新兴市场

China’s markets remained closed for the New Year holidays. Nevertheless, Chinese ADRs came under pressure after news that Donald Trump was unlikely to meet Xi Jinping before March 1, escalating fears that no trade agreement would be reached before the deadline.

On the corporate front, AIA  announced it had received regulatory approval to sell in services centres in Tianjin and Shijianzhuang, the capital of the Hebei province. This is crucial if AIA is to accelerate its long-term growth.

In India, January auto sales were weak. Royal Enfield volumes declined 6.6% YoY but were better than expected. Tata  posted weak third-quarter results with Ebitda down 24% YoY or more than expected due to soft demand in India and China. On the other hand, Britannia  reported a solid 11% increase in sales and 14% in earnings. Elsewhere, India’s central bank surprised the market and cut interest rates, clarifying its focus on headline inflation.

In Brazil, Lower House president Rodrigo Maia said pension reform could be voted on before the first week of June. Lojas Renner’s fourth quarter results beat expectations with strong same-store sales growth of 12% and higher margins. In contrast, Itau missed expectations as EPS rose only 3% YoY, NIM fell and provisions for corporate lending increased. Guidance for 2019 was lower than expected, implying 13% EPS growth, but lending should accelerate, and asset quality improve. 

中国的市场在新年假期期间仍然关闭。然而，在唐纳德特朗普不太可能在3月1日之前与习近平会面后，中国的ADR受到压力，因此担心在截止日期前不会达成任何贸易协议。

在企业方面，友邦保险宣布已获得监管部门批准在天津和河北省省会石家庄的服务中心销售。如果友邦保险要加速其长期增长，这一点至关重要。

在印度，1月份汽车销售疲软。皇家恩菲尔德的销量同比下降6.6％，但好于预期。由于印度和中国需求疲软，塔塔公布第三季度业绩疲弱，Ebitda同比下降24％或超过预期。另一方面，Britannia报告销售增长11％，盈利增长14％。其他方面，印度央行对市场感到意外，并降低利率，澄清其对总体通胀的关注。

在巴西，下议院议长Rodrigo Maia表示养老金改革可以在6月的第一周之前进行投票。 Lojas Renner的第四季度业绩超出预期，同店销售额增长12％，利润率更高。相比之下，Itau未达到预期，因为每股盈利同比仅增长3％，净息差下降，企业贷款拨备增加。 2019年的指引低于预期，意味着每股盈利增长13％，但贷款应加速，资产质量改善。

Commodities

大宗商品

Since the dam on the Feijão mine site burst with serious loss of life, the iron ore price has steadily risen. Parent company Vale  rapidly said 10 other tailings dams with the same characteristics would be dismantled for a long-term impact of 40m tonnes. The group expects to offset this by using its 50 million tonne a year latent capacity. However, the regulatory authority in the Brazilian state where the disaster occurred has revoked its operating permit and suspended operations at the Brucutu mine which produces 30 million tonnes. Vale could lose 75m tonnes this year, or 4% of global exports, and with no compensation. Iron ore prices have quickly gained 15% to $101/t for top quality ore (65%) and 23% to $61/t for inferior grade ore (58%).Steel makers, particularly in China, will be tempted to use inferior ore to maintain margins, especially as steel prices have been falling for several months.

At the same time, ArcelorMittal  sees global economic risks hitting demand for steel in China and, to a lesser extent, in the US and Europe. The group has revised down global demand growth from 2.8% this year to 0.5-1%. After rising 3.5% in 2018, Chinese demand growth is now expected at 1.5%, down from 2% previously. As a result, any iron ore price increase should be capped, especially for the 65% representing superior grade ore. 62% grade ore, produced mainly in Australia, could still advance over the short term from today’s $80/t to the $90-100 region.

Elsewhere, oil prices remain underpinned by steep falls in OPEC production over the last 2 months. However, Alberta province in Canada, which had announced a 325,000 b/d reduction due to falling oil prices in the country, could rapidly return to normal output as prices have recovered. Libya’s output fell to 700,000 b/d in January, compared to last October’s high of 1.25 million, after rebel militia took control of the Sharara field (300,000 b/d). The regular army has since recovered the field so production should resume in the coming weeks. 

由于Feijão矿场的大坝破损严重，铁矿石价格稳步上涨。母公司Vale迅速表示，其他10座具有相同特性的尾矿坝将被拆除，长期影响为4000万吨。该集团预计将通过使用其每年5000万吨的潜在产能来抵消这一影响。然而，发生灾难的巴西国家的监管机构已经撤销了其生产许可证并暂停了生产3000万吨Brucutu矿的业务。淡水河谷今年可能损失7500万吨，占全球出口量的4％，并且没有任何补偿。劣质矿石（65％）的铁矿石价格迅速上涨15％至101美元/吨，劣质矿石（58％）的铁矿石价格上涨23％至61美元/吨。钢铁生产商，特别是中国的钢铁生产商将被诱惑使用劣质矿石保持利润率，特别是钢材价格连续几个月下跌。

与此同时，安赛乐米塔尔认为全球经济风险对中国钢铁需求的影响较小，在美国和欧洲则较小。该集团已将全球需求增长从今年的2.8％下调至0.5-1％。在2018年上涨3.5％后，中国需求增长目前预计为1.5％，低于之前的2％。因此，任何铁矿石价格上涨都应该受到限制，特别是代表优质矿石的65％。主要在澳大利亚生产的62％等级矿石仍可在短期内从今天的80美元/吨上涨至90-100美元区域。

在其他地方，过去两个月石油输出国组织产量急剧下降，油价仍然受到支撑。然而，加拿大阿尔伯塔省宣布因该国油价下跌而减少325,000桶/日，随着价格的回升，可迅速恢复正常产量。在反叛民兵控制沙拉拉油田（30万桶/日）后，利比亚1月产量下降至70万桶/日，而去年10月的高点为125万桶。从那以后，正规军恢复了战场，因此在未来几周内恢复生产。

Corporate debt

企业债务

Credit 

信贷市场

In a mixed week, eurozone PMI January avoided recessionary territory but the European Commission revised its 2019 growth forecasts lower. Spreads were also affected by fresh worries over the US-China trade talks. The Xover widened by 8bp and the Main by around 2bp.

SoftBank (Ba1/BB+) posted upbeat sales and EBITDA for the first 9 months, up 5.2% and 11.3% respectively. Thomas Cook’s first quarter sales were disappointing due to a sharp increase in net debt and bigger operating losses. But news that its was to conduct a review of its airline seemed to reassure investors.

Zinc producer Nyrstar’s bonds plunged by up to 15 points last Monday after a profit warning. The group's EBITDA will probably be negative in the fourth quarter due to more expensive commodities and operating problems at its main Port Pirie site.

In an eventful week for Dia, its main shareholder, LetterOne, launched a bid at €0.67 a share for the rest of the equity. A minority shareholders defence association then said the bid undervalued the company and it would appear a group of investors representing 3.25% of the shares is now mulling a counter bid. The company's bonds rose over the week despite S&P cutting its rating from CCC+ to CCC on the rescue plan’s execution risk.

BNP Paribas posted disappointing figures due to a €222m operating loss at its Global Markets division. The bank revised its 2020 guidance and intends to restructure its Corporate and Institutional Bank division in depth.

In M&A, Switzerland’s Sunrise  (telecoms) is in talks with Liberty Global to buy its UPC Switzerland subsidiary. UPC’s bonds rose on the news.

Santander sold a $1.2bn AT1 with a 7.5% coupon. The economic conditions attached to the issue could warrant calling its PNC19 AT1 bonds but the bank has so far not said anything about this.

Bankia raised €1bn with a 10-year Tier 2 bond at 3.75%. 

在混合的一周，欧元区1月采购经理人指数避免了经济衰退，但欧盟委员会将2019年的增长预测下修。美中贸易谈判的新担忧也影响了价差。 Xover扩大了8bp，Main扩大了大约2bp。

软银（Ba1 / BB +）前9个月销售额和EBITDA均表现强劲，分别上涨5.2％和11.3％。由于净债务的大幅增加和较大的经营亏损，托马斯库克的第一季度销售额令人失望。但有消息称其对航空公司进行审查似乎让投资者放心。

在发布盈利预警后，锌生产商Nyrstar的债券上周一暴跌15点。该集团的EBITDA可能在第四季度出现负增长，原因是其主要港口Pirie场地的商品和运营问题更加昂贵。

在Dia的多事之夜，其主要股东LetterOne以每股0.67欧元的价格发行其余股权。一位少数股东辩护协会随后表示，该出价低估了该公司，看来一群代表3.25％股份的投资者正在考虑反击。尽管标准普尔在救援计划的执行风险上将其评级从CCC +降至CCC，但该公司的债券在本周上涨。

法国巴黎银行（BNP Paribas）发布令人失望的数据，因其全球市场部门的营业亏损为2.22亿欧元。该银行修订了2020年的指引，并打算深入调整其企业和机构银行部门。

在并购方面，瑞士的Sunrise（电信公司）正在与Liberty Global进行谈判，以收购其UPC瑞士子公司。 UPC的债券因新闻而上涨。

桑坦德以12％的优惠券售出12亿美元的AT1。该问题附带的经济条件可能需要调用其PNC19 AT1债券，但该银行到目前为止尚未对此发表任何评论。

Bankia以10年期第二级债券募集资金10亿欧元，收益率为3.75％。

Convertibles 

可转债

Amid earnings reports, it was another quiet week on the new issues market with only 2 modest deals from small healthcare companies in the US.

OPKO Health, a medical test and medication company focused on diagnostics and pharmaceuticals ($1.5bn market cap), is a serial convertible issuer. It raised $200m with a 2025 convertible at 4.5%. The company intends to use the net proceeds to fund research and development to further develop and commercialise its proprietary pharmaceutical and diagnostic product portfolio and for general corporate purposes.

Tabula Rasa Healthcare, a $1bn market cap active in medication risk management, pharmacy cost management, and Medicare risk adjustment services, is raising $250m over 7 years with a coupon of between 1.75%-2.25% and a 27.5%-32.5% premium. The proceeds will be used to repay an existing revolving credit facility and general corporate purposes including potential acquisitions. 

In the rest of the news, Sony  rallied on its first-ever share buyback plan (JPN 100 billion). AMS, a European semiconductor company, released preliminary annual results in line with estimates but delivered a disappointing outlook for the current quarter. The company announced a reduction of capex and a suspension of its cash dividend policy for fiscal year 2018 which was a good signal for its bonds. In the US, Microchip Tech reported solid third-quarter results with revenues at $1.42bn, or slightly above consensus. While guiding below consensus for its fourth quarter revenues, management stressed that a successful conclusion to trade talks with China would be a bonanza for the business. The stock jumped 7.3% after the results.

在收益报告中，这是新发行市场上又一个平静的一周，只有来自美国小型医疗保健公司的2笔温和交易。

OPKO Health是一家专注于诊断和药品的医疗测试和药物公司（市值15亿美元），是一家系列可转换发行人。它以20％的敞篷车票价4.5％筹集了2亿美元。该公司打算将所得款项净额用于研发资金，以进一步开发和商业化其专有的制药和诊断产品组合以及一般企业用途。

Tabula Rasa Healthcare是一家活跃于药物风险管理，药房成本管理和医疗保险风险调整服务的10亿美元市值，7年内筹集2.5亿美元，票面利率介于1.75％-2.25％和27.5％-32.5％之间。所得款项将用于偿还现有循环信贷额度及一般企业用途，包括潜在收购。

在其他消息方面，索尼首次推出股票回购计划（1000亿日元）。欧洲半导体公司AMS发布的初步年度业绩符合预期，但本季度前景令人失望。该公司宣布减少资本支出并暂停2018财年的现金股利政策，这是其债券的良好信号。在美国，Microchip Tech公布第三季度业绩稳健，收入为14.2亿美元，略高于市场预期。管理层在指导其第四季度收入达不到共识的同时，强调与中国进行贸易谈判的成功结束将是该业务的一个财富。结果公布后股价上涨7.3％。

市场点评概括：

尽管1月市场出现转牛迹象，市场复苏。然而这是由于美联储短暂安抚市场的缘故。仍然有巨大的不安定风险因素在酝酿。欧盟暂时脱离经济衰退的威胁。这也是由于欧央行本身努力。然而特朗普坚定地不放弃他的墨西哥墙也将使政府持续面临指控和关门的威胁。

中国市场来说，随着会谈临近，国内企业在美国的上市股票ADR（American deposit receipt) 股价将进一步受到测试

大宗商品关注铁矿价格。随着巴西矿灾矿难事件的进一步酝酿，铁矿价格进一步上涨。

日本市场来说，索尼股价维持涨势，可关注索尼持续的股票回购。

可转债方面，TABULA医药企业将募集7年期2亿5千万美元，票息在1.75～2.25%左右的可转债。