CSPC PHARMACEUTICAL(1093.HK)：PROMISING EARLY DATA OF COVID-19 MRNA VACCINE

机构：招银国际
研究员：Jill Wu

2021 earnings in line. CSPC reported 2021 revenue/ attributable net profit of RMB27.9bn/ RMB5.6bn, up 11.7% / 8.6% YoY, respectively. Recurring profit grew 24.2% YoY to RMB5.4bn. Driven by significant sales volume growth, sales revenue of NBP remained flattish during 2021, after over 50% price cut in Mar 2021. CSPC has continued increasing R&D investment, with R&D expense increased 18.8% YoY to RMB3.4bn.
Significant progress in innovative pipelines. Anfulike (Amphotericin B Cholesteryl Sulfate Complex for Injection) was lauched in Mar 21, and has been included in NRDL from Jan 2022. YTD, CSPC has obtained registration approvals of two potential blockbusters, including Duoenda (mitoxantrone hydrochloride liposome injection) and COPIKTRA (duvelisib capsule)。 With the acquisition of 51% stake in Recomgen Biotech in Feb 2022, CSPC obtained a 3rd-generation thrombolytic drug, Mingfule (rhTNK-tPA), which will have significant sales channel synergies with NBP. In 2021, CSPC has over 50 clinical-stage drug candidates, including 13 candicates in pivotal trials, 3 in NDA enabling stage and 2 completed NDA. We expect CSPC’s innovative drug portfolio will grow rapidly in coming years.
Early data shows good immunogenicity of SYS6006, the mRNA vaccine candidate. CSPC has carried out preclinical studies and small-size clinical studies on its COVID-19 mRNA vaccine candidate, SYS6006. Preliminary data shows good and persistent immunogenicity, as well as good safety profile. Clinical study has shown that after 14 days of boost with SYS6006, the binding antibody titer was above 105, which was over 10x higher than that of inactive vaccines. Safety performance of SYS6006 was similar to BioNTech’s mRNA vaccine’s PhI data in China. SYS6006 has good neutralizing activity for Omicron variant. Preclinical serum neutralizing test in mokey indicated that SY6006’s neutralization ability against Omicron variant reduced only 50% compared with Delta variant. CSPC has already prepared approximately 500mn dose of manufacturing capacity of mRNA vaccines.
Maintain BUY. To be conservative, we currently do not factor in potential revenue contribution from SYS6006. We expect CSPC’s revenue to grow 10% / 10% YoY in FY22E/ 23E and attributable net profit to grow 13% / 16% YoY in FY22E/ 23E. We revised up our DCF-based TP from HK$12.33 to HK$13.20 (WACC 11.78%, Terminal growth 3.0%), indicating 20x FY22E PE.