WB-SW(09898.HK)：2021 RESULTS IN LINE; SHORT-TERM PRESSURE IN 2022

机构：国泰君安（香港）
研究员：Vincent Liu

　　Weibo's non-GAAP shareholders’ net profit in 4Q2021 decreased yoy by 8.1% to US$196 million. Revenue from advertising and marketing amounted to US$551 million, up 21.5% yoy, mainly due to resilient advertising performance. Revenue from value-added services increased yoy by 9.2% to US$65 million. For 2021, revenue increased by 33.6% to US$2,257 million, in line with our expectation. Non-GAAP shareholders’ net profit amounted to US$719 million, up 31.2%.
　　On the user side, Weibo’s MAU in December 2021 was 573 million, up 10.0% yoy but flat compared with September 2021. DAU was 249 million, up 10.7% yoy and 0.4% qoq. DAU/MAU increased by 0.3 ppt yoy and 0.2 ppt qoq to 43.5%.
　　We expect Weibo’s revenue in 2022-2024 to be US$2,325 million, US$2,513 million, and US$2,617 million, respectively, representing yoy growth of 3.0%, 8.1% and 4.1%. For advertising and marketing, overall outlook in 2022 is expected to be less optimistic, but we believe that Weibo will continue to weigh its resources to key verticals. For value-added services, we expect yoy decline in 2022, mainly due to high base of 2021 and live streaming business which is significantly influenced by regulation.
　　We maintain our investment rating as "Accumulate" but revise down our target price to HK$255.00. Mainly due to incremental costs from active investment in key verticals and tax expenses, we expect decline in margins.Our target price represents 11.8x, 10.3x and 9.3x 2022-2024 non-GAAP PER, respectively.