Ping An(601318)3Q26 preview：NPAT to hit quarterly trough while OPAT remained robust

机构：招银国际
研究员：Nika MA

Ping An is scheduled to report 3Q26 quarterly earnings on 28 Oct (Wed) post-market. We expect Group OPAT to grow 8.1% YoY in 9M26 (1H26: +8.3%), implying broadly intact 3Q growth of 7.6% YoY (vs 1Q/2Q26: +7.6%/+9.0%) unaffected by the quarterly capital market volatilities. Group NPAT could drop 29% YoY in 9M26 per our estimate (vs. 1H26: +36%), dragged by sharp A-share market corrections as CSI300/SHCOMP index was down 13%/6% in 3Q26 (vs. 3Q25: +18%/+13%). NAV could rise 3.0% from year-start, flat QoQ, as a combined result of 1) higher fair value gains from OCI equities i.e. the CSI Dividend/CSI High Dividend Low Vol index rose 9%/10% in 3Q26 and Ping An’s higher-than-most-peers OCI stock exposure (1H26: 66%); 2) China’s 10yr govt. bond yield trending lower in 3Q, which could boost OCI bonds’ fair value, offset by the 3) increase in liability reserve charge. NBV could see a double-digit decline, which we estimate to fall 14% YoY in 9M26. This was weighed by an industry-wide sales slowdown and a one-off negative impact on margin given the high comparative set prior to actuarial assumption changes by end-FY25. Despite an anticipated recovery in 4Q, we revise down our full-year NBV growth forecast to bake in the 3Q26 lag. P&C combined ratio could be better than expected and we forecast to improve 0.5pct YoY to 96.5% in 9M26. Maintain BUY with our H/A-share price target unchanged at HK$81/RMB73.
3Q NPAT to hit a quarterly trough within the year while OPAT stayed robust. We expect Group NPAT to decline 29% YoY in 9M26, mainly weighed by A-share market headwinds in 3Q26 (CSI 300/SHCOMP: -13%/-6%, vs. 3Q25: +18%/+13%), offsetting 1H investment gains. Despite this softness, Ping An could outperform peers in 3Q IFRS net earnings given its greater exposure to OCI stocks than peers (1H26: 66% in stock mix/9.6% of insurance funds vs. peers’ average of 40%/4.7%). Group OPAT could grow 8.1% YoY in 9M26, translating into a 7.6% YoY lift in 3Q, of which we expect the L&H, PAB, and AM segments to remain solid drivers.
NBV to fall on premium slowdown and a margin high-base. We forecast NBV to decline 14% YoY in 9M26 (vs. 1H26: +11%), dragged by an industry-wide sales slowdown against a strong comparative prior to the PIR cuts in Sep 2025, the feedthrough impact of tighter bancassurance regulation, and a one-off negative margin impact given the base set before the actuarial assumption changes by end-2025. 4Q NBV recovery could come along with the ramp-up of the 2027 jumpstart sales, yet the agency force would still need more time shifting towards life products with extended payment terms. We revise down our FY26E NBV growth forecast to 4%.
P&C COR likely better than previous estimates. We estimate P&C combined ratio to improve 0.5pct YoY to 96.5% in 9M26 despite under the backdrop of increasing natural catastrophe (NAT CAT) claims in 3Q. The COR improvement could be a result of 1) ongoing tightening of expense control, allowing the decrease of expense ratio more than offset the increase in claims ratio (CMBI est); 2) robust underwriting prints in 1H26 left space for claims on major catastrophes in 3Q26. On the premiums front, we maintain our forecast on low single-digit growth in 9M.
TP unchanged; yield topped among peers. The stock is trading at 0.47x FY26E P/EV and 0.7x FY26E P/B with an avg. 3yr forward ROE >13% and a yield close to 7% amid recent share price corrections, standing as the highest among peers. We expect a clearer guidance on 4Q-to-date life sales momentum and updates for the 2027 jumpstart sales during the call. Maintain BUY, with our H/A-share TP unchanged at HK$81/RMB73 which implies 0.8x FY26E P/EV and 1.2x FY26E P/B.